- Windermere Greenwood

The Gardner Report | First Quarter 2018

 

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 96,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.9%—still solidly above the national rate of 1.5%. Most of the employment gains were in the private sector, which rose by 3.4%. The public sector saw a more modest increase of 1.6%.

The strongest growth was in the Education & Health Services and Retail sectors, which added 17,300 and 16,700 jobs, respectively. The Construction sector added 10,900 new positions over the past 12 months.

Even with solid increases in jobs, the state unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%—a figure that has not moved since September of last year.

I expect the Washington State economy to continue adding jobs in 2018, but not at the same rate as last year given that we are nearing full employment. That said, we will still outperform the nation as a whole when it comes to job creation.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 14,961 home sales during the first quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 5.4% over the same period in 2017.
  • Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the first quarter of 2017, with an increase of 16.5%. In most of the other markets, the lack of available homes for sale slowed the number of closings during this period.
  • Listing inventory in the quarter was down by 17.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017, but pending home sales rose by 2.6% over the same period, suggesting that closings in the second quarter should be fairly robust.
  • The takeaway from this data is that the lack of supply continues to put a damper on sales. I also believe that the rise in interest rates in the final quarter of 2017 likely pulled sales forward, leading to a drop in sales in the first quarter of 2018.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With ongoing limited inventory, it’s not surprising that the growth in home prices continues to trend well above the long-term average. Year-over-year, average prices rose 14.4% to $468,312.
  • Economic vitality in the region is leading to robust housing demand that far exceeds supply. Given the relative lack of new construction homes— something that is unlikely to change any time soon—there will continue to be pressure on the resale market. As a result, home prices will continue to rise at above-average rates in the coming year.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Grays Harbor County at 27.5%. Ten additional counties experienced double-digit price growth.
  • Mortgage rates continued to rise during first quarter, and are expected to increase modestly in the coming months. By the end of the year, interest rates will likely land around 4.9%, which should take some of the steam out of price growth. This is actually a good thing and should help address the challenges we face with housing affordability—especially in markets near the major job centers.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by seven days when compared to the same quarter of 2017.
  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 24 days to sell. Every county in the region saw the length of time it took to sell a home either drop or remain essentially static relative to the same period a year ago.
  • In looking at the entire region, it took an average of 61 days to sell a home in the first quarter of this year. This is down from 68 days in the first quarter of 2017 but up by eleven days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Anyone expecting to see a rapid rise in the number of homes for sale in 2018 will likely be disappointed. New construction permit activity—a leading indicator—remains well below historic levels and this will continue to put increasing pressure on the resale home market.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle at the same point as fourth quarter of last year. Price growth remains strong even as sales activity slowed. All things being equal, 2018 is setting itself up to be another very good year for sellers but, unfortunately, not for buyers who will still see stiff competition for the limited number of available homes for sale.

 

 

 

 

Mr. Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.


Posted on May 3, 2018 at 10:21 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

ArtUp PhinneyWood – “The BIG One”

Join us at our office for ArtUp PhinneyWood

as we feature work from multiple artists from Art for All & Vibrant Palette.

This is going to be an amazing show!

Friday May 11th, 6-9pm
Saturday May 12th, 12-5pm

at Windermere Greenwood

 

 

 

 

 

 

Art for All is a grass roots organization that connects and promotes the arts and opportunities for artists with special needs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vibrant Palette Arts Center serves adult artists with

developmental, mental, and physical disabilities

by providing a professional studio environment

for artistic growth in a social atmosphere among peers.

 


Posted on April 26, 2018 at 12:25 am
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

Puget Sound Golf Courses


Posted on April 24, 2018 at 4:46 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

Windermere Foundation Report | Q1 2018

Thanks to the generosity of Windermere agents and the community, the Windermere Foundation collected over $330,000 in donations during the first quarter of 2018. Individual contributions and fundraisers accounted for 58 percent of the donations, while 42 percent came from donations through Windermere agent commissions. So far, we have raised a total of $35,869,961 in donations since 1989 when the Windermere Foundation was started.

 

Each Windermere office has its own Windermere Foundation fund account that they use to make donations to organizations in their local communities. In the first quarter of 2018, a total of $521,916 was disbursed to non-profit organizations dedicated to providing services to low-income and homeless families throughout the Western U.S.

One organization that has been the recipient of Windermere Foundation funds is Youthnet, serving Skagit, Whatcom, Snohomish, Island, and San Juan Counties in Washington State. Youthnet provides caring and supportive educational and social services to youth and families to help them attain a productive and successful life.

 

The Windermere Real Estate/Skagit Valley office in Mount Vernon, Washington has donated a total of $1,500 to Youthnet since 2015. Their support has continued to make a difference to the children, youth, and families served.

 

Donations have helped Youthnet support clients like Tracey and Tom, who are struggling to care for their three young children because of their inability to find and keep jobs due to mental health issues. Support from donors such as Windermere allows Tracey and Tom to receive resources, parenting support, and guidance to keep Sarah, Suzie and Jimmy well-cared-for.  Funding also helps clients like Jennifer, who is finishing high school this year and thinking about going to college. She would be the first one in her family to achieve this goal.

Generous donations to the Windermere Foundation over the years have enabled Windermere offices to continue to support local non-profits like Youthnet. If you’d like to help support programs in your community, please click on the Donate button.

 

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit http://www.windermere.com/foundation.


Posted on April 23, 2018 at 10:46 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

2018 Pacific NW Music Festivals & Concerts


Posted on April 23, 2018 at 7:03 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

2018 Summer Concerts at Marymoor Park


Posted on April 23, 2018 at 7:02 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

Gorge Amphitheater Concert Schedule


Posted on April 23, 2018 at 7:01 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

Chateau Ste. Michelle Summer Concerts


Posted on April 23, 2018 at 7:00 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

Seattle Farmers Markets


Posted on April 23, 2018 at 5:18 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |

Seattle Mariners Schedule 2018


Posted on March 27, 2018 at 6:20 pm
Windermere Greenwood | Posted in Windermere Greenwood |